The idea of Peak Oil, where demand exceeds supply, threatened us for a long time yet continual advances in oil extraction techniques keeps pushing that date farther and farther out, as explained in a recent article over at FastCompany (worth reading if you’re into this stuff!). Instead, we’re facing a new dilemma…we’ve gotten so good at extracting fossil fuels from the ground, that we now face the grim reality of the environmental impact of consuming the known and accessible fossil fuel reserves. If we want to stay below the internationally-agreed upon 2°C of global warming, we can dump about 565 gigatons more CO2 into the atmosphere. The problem is that current fossil fuel reserves, ignoring any future discoveries, contain about 2,795 gigatons of CO2 (source). Yeah. Not good. Either fossil fuels need to get so expensive that people stop using them, or we’re going to really mess up this planet.
The cost of oil, part 2
As a follow up to my earlier post about the Cost of Oil, comes this article from the Huffington Post. More facts, more examples, more of the same to many of you, but for those of you who aren’t quite convinced, check it out for yourself and see if it makes sense to you. There’s a lot of talk in the media about the cost of oil, and discussions about different options for getting more of it (Keystone XL pipeline, drilling in the gulf, etc). It’s worth realizing that these solutions will provide oil, but not CHEAP oil. Or as the article above so nicely put it,
The simple truth of the matter is this: most of the world’s easy reserves have already been depleted — except for those in war-torn countries like Iraq. Virtually all of the oil that’s left is contained in harder-to-reach, tougher reserves. These include deep-offshore oil, Arctic oil, and shale oil, along with Canadian “oil sands” — which are not composed of oil at all, but of mud, sand, and tar-like bitumen. So-called unconventional reserves of these types can be exploited, but often at a staggering price, not just in dollars but also in damage to the environment.
So what’s the answer? Adapt. Oil will continue to get more expensive and more rare. We need to work hard to wean ourselves off of that addiction, for the longer we wait, the more difficult that transition will be.
The cost of oil
With the political season in full swing and our annual uptick in gas prices, there’s a lot of talk about how to lower the price of gas and oil. The reality is really nicely summed up in this article at smartplanet. The fact is, we’ve already tapped all the ‘cheap’, easily accessible oil. While there are vast quantities of hydrocarbons still available to be extracted, the cost of doing so is quite high, and as a result, we’ll never have ‘cheap’ oil ever again. Those new sources are also more difficult to get to (meaning more expensive). This means that around 2014-2015, we’re expected to hit a point where global oil supply (production) decreases on a year to year basis. Naturally, this is not going to be fun for those driving inefficient cars. If you’re shopping for a new car, you’d be wise to consider the most fuel efficient model that you can for whatever type of vehicle you need!
It’s a really good article and worth the read, check it out here.