The droughts and wildfires that have hit this country are signs of what’s to expect with climate change in the coming years, but here’s the thing…people are, I fear, overreacting to this. Meaning, they’re looking at what’s happening and saying that climate change is here, this is the new norm, etc. While that’s mostly right, climate is a variable thing and you need to look at long term trends. I have little doubt that, long term, yeah, this is the new ‘norm’. I also have little doubt, though, that in the next year or two, we’ll probably get a lot of rain, maybe cooler temperatures, and people will then use that as an argument to attempt to refute the idea of climate change, to try to convince others that there’s no threat. Just keep a level head about you, this year was bad, future years will seem better, but you need to look at long term trends of many years when you look at this global climate. Those trends make it clear that the planet is warming, and what’s really scary is that we’re already experiencing bad weather, when the worst impacts of climate change aren’t forecast to happen for many, many more years to come.
Climate change may lead to ozone layer depletion
Scientists have discovered a new possible side effect of global climate change, and while it’s too early to draw any conclusions, this is a significant element that needs to be monitored closely. They discovered that water vapor, when injected into the stratosphere by large thunderstorms, can change stable forms of bromine and chlorine into free radicals that then convert ozone (O3) into normal oxygen gas (O2). Keep in mind that it’s the ozone layer that helps block harmful UV radiation (which causes skin cancer and could also damage the DNA of plants and animals). Climate change is expected to lead to an increase in storm intensity, which is what makes this relevant here. As with anything having to do with this planet’s climate, it’s a complicated issue and needs further study, but I find it interesting as it’s an angle I hadn’t considered before.
You can read more about this over at Phys.org.
26 states are natural disasters due to drought
26 states have been declared natural disasters due to drought. Crops are withering. While it’s not possible to tie one year of weather to climate change, this is just another data point in a continuing trend, one that’s going pretty much as climate scientists have been predicting. Another result has been the wildfires in Colorado. Increased rainfall in the Pacific Northwest. These are, most likely, not ‘abnormalities’, but rather the new norm…and we’re nowhere near predicted levels of global climate warming, that’s still decades away (or more, if we don’t find a way to drastically cut CO2 levels). If we were to slash CO2 emissions to zero this year (great TED talk from Bill Gates here on that topic), much of this could be held at the levels we see now (except that sea level rise would continue for quite some time). The chances of that happening are zilch, I’d say. Expect weather extremes to get worse, and be ready to adapt the best you can.
Life, liberty, and the pursuit of idiocy
Sometimes the level of stupidity in this country really surprises me. First there was Virginia, which viewed the term ‘sea level rise’ as a ‘left-wing term’ and instead mandated that the scientifically-observed rise in sea levels instead be referred to as ‘recurrent flooding’. Morons. Sea level rise is only a ‘left-wing term’ in as much as the ‘right wing’ types deny science in favor of short term gain and profit. Science is not political, it is factual, and those who deny science bring shame to this great country of ours.
The problem is not confined to Virginia though…neighboring state of North Carolina is trying to out-stupidify Virginia, with a recently passed bill that states that the state must ignore the science that is attempting to predict future sea levels based on our changing climate, and instead use only historical data to predict future sea levels. Because, you know, the Earth is in a constant state of equilibrium with absolute no changes to its atmospheric composition, you know. This means that rather than plan for a potential thirty nine inch rise in sea levels that scientists are predicting as a strong possibility by 2100, North Carolina will instead plan on a mere eight inch rise in sea levels. Coastal developers worry that planning for a thirty nine inch sea level rise will harm the coastal economy, so rather than plan for what scientists think will happen, they’re instead focusing on how they can maximize profit in the short term, and leave future generations to deal with this.
Morons.
As Steven Colbert put it, “If science gives you a result you don’t like, pass a law saying the result is illegal. Problem solved.”
Extreme winters likely to be the new norm
If you’ve thought the past few winters in the Northern Hemisphere were a bit unusual and inconsistent, well, get used to it, for it’s probably only going to get worse as our global climate continues to change. Scientists expect more ‘unusual’ winters, and less ‘average’ winters. What scares me is that we’re already seeing this effect, when we’re so far away from the global temperatures predicted for the coming decades.
Read more over at Scientific American.
Bleak outlook for Earth
Things aren’t looking good for this planet. The well-respected group of scientists known as the Royal Society is concerned about the combination of excessive consumption and population growth, and is suggesting increased birth control and global redistribution of wealth to combat that. Two things that are politically untouchable in this country at least. This is the problem I see…scientists look at the path we’re on and have recommendations for how to fix it, but the political and social reality is not guided by science, it is guided by other influences. Scientists, in general, just don’t seem to get this…they keep talking about what should be done to solve the world’s problems, without recognizing what can be done. We don’t need talk about ideal solutions, we need talk about practical, realistic solutions. Changes that you can possibly expect might be implemented. You can read more about the Royal Society’s position on these issues in Scientific American. And no, I don’t have the answer…I’m just really pessimistic about global governments’ abilities to enact change, and get frustrated when the best answer I hear from scientists is to let global governments solve these problems. It’s not going to happen, we need new ideas.
In separate, but related, news, the executive director of the International Energy Agency is warning governments around the world that, globally, fossil fuel consumption is increasing and we need to shift our focus to renewable energy sources. On our current path, we’re looking at a global temperature increase of 6C by the end of the century, triple the international ‘goal’ of 2C (though I’d argue that the goal should be zero!). We’re just nowhere near where we need to be, and there’s no real drive for change.
Bleak news, but then, it’s not really news…it’s just more of the same. We recognize the problem but instead of taking responsibility for our actions, we’ll pass this off to the next generation and make them deal with it. This is our legacy, but I hold out hope that we can find technological solutions to these social problems before it’s too late.
Warmest March Ever
According to climate data from NOAA, our country just experienced its warmest March ever. The average temperature was 8.6F above the average for the last century. Precipitation was slightly above average nationwide, though concentrated in the northwest and the southern plains, with much of the rest of the country experiencing drier than average conditions and helping to contribute to ~37% of this country being in drought conditions. Alaska, not included in these results, experienced its 10th coolest winter on record (~5F below average).
What does this mean? Global warming is real, people. I don’t have complete confidence in any of the models that attempt to predict how weather patterns will change, I feel it’s still too complex a system for us to analyze, but there’s no escaping the FACT that our global climate IS changing due to global warming. In spite of that, we continue to not make serious efforts to reduce our CO2 emissions. There are those who continue to deny the link between CO2 and global warming, and I don’t see that ever changing, unfortunately. We’ll continue to march down this path and ruin this beautiful planet for future generations. They’ll adapt and survive, but will live in a much different world than what we enjoy.
What can we as individuals do? Educate those around you. Speak up. Reduce your own CO2 emissions and lead by example.
(via Treehugger)
Water Shortages in the Forecast
Water supplies in our country are not only facing pressure from an increasing population, but climate change is likely to make the problem worse. So bad in fact, that by 2050 more than one in three counties in the US could face either a high or extreme risk of water shortage. Most likely, this will affect southern and southwestern states, and the southern Great Plains states. Read more over at sciencedaily.
What to expect from our changing climate
The scientific consensus is clear – humans are responsible for global warming. The political consensus is likewise clear – we’re not going to do what it takes to avoid significant climate change. So, we must face the reality of this world we’re creating. What can we expect? The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has a report summarizing what our children will have to deal with as they grow up. Things such as stronger storms, hotter and longer heat waves, higher temperatures, and more precipitation.
It’s a shame that we can see this happening around us and see where our current path will lead, yet lack the willpower to alter this course. It will be up to the scientists and engineers to help our society adapt to this changing climate.