The UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued a new report concluding that climate change is already having a big impact on agriculture, human health, and water supplies, and are warning that these effects will get more severe over time. The IPCC warns that governments and businesses need to take action immediately against these growing risks, though I fear that even the business-friendly GOP will be more focused on short term profits and gains than long term sustainability.
People are so incredibly focused on what fighting climate change would cost then, now, that they tend to overlook the cost of inaction. Sure, most of this cost will be borne by future generations, but what gives us the right to burden them with this? They deserve the same, or better, quality of life as us. So, what is the cost of climate impacts due to human-caused CO2 pollution? A recent study (link) finds the worst case cost, which is based on our current course of action, at about $1240 trillion, a number so large that I have a hard time comprehending it (the timeframe of this is a bit unclear, but they do say the annual impact is about $1.5 trillion so this cost looks like a long-term one, not to downplay its significance any!). What’s more important is that they also estimate that, if we can stabilize CO2 levels at 450ppm, the impact is only about $110 trillion, a substantial savings. Given the obvious cost savings here, and our current inaction, I fear our generation will do nothing more than teach future generations to not be so greedy. Which is not all bad, assuming future generations can manage to still have a cohesive, productive society in the changing ecosystem we’re creating for them. Read more here.
Jumping now to this infographic, obtained from grist. It lays out the expected impact of climate change, taking into account different CO2 emission scenarios (we’re on track for the worst case scenario as laid out here…scary). Click the thumbnail below for the full image.
The idea of Peak Oil, where demand exceeds supply, threatened us for a long time yet continual advances in oil extraction techniques keeps pushing that date farther and farther out, as explained in a recent article over at FastCompany (worth reading if you’re into this stuff!). Instead, we’re facing a new dilemma…we’ve gotten so good at extracting fossil fuels from the ground, that we now face the grim reality of the environmental impact of consuming the known and accessible fossil fuel reserves. If we want to stay below the internationally-agreed upon 2°C of global warming, we can dump about 565 gigatons more CO2 into the atmosphere. The problem is that current fossil fuel reserves, ignoring any future discoveries, contain about 2,795 gigatons of CO2 (source). Yeah. Not good. Either fossil fuels need to get so expensive that people stop using them, or we’re going to really mess up this planet.
The Internet of Things is best thought of as abundant networked, communicating smart devices all around you. Sensors, mostly, that are all communicating and making available unprecedented amounts of information about objects and the environment. Houses that know what rooms people are in, what rooms they are likely to be in next, and adjust HVAC systems accordingly to reduce energy consumption, for example. I’ve loved the idea of this from a technology geek perspective, but I hadn’t considered the environmental aspect until coming across this article talking about how it could offset billions of tons of CO2 through increased efficiency. Interesting idea…and it makes a lot of sense. We’d have to also consider the CO2 impact of actually producing so many sensors and networked objects, though.
2012 saw large increases in the amount of atmospheric CO2, with a jump of 2.67ppm (parts per million). As a comparison, between 2000 and 2010, the annual rate of increase was just under 2ppm; in the 1960s it was less than 1ppm. In spite of this data and political paralysis on the issue, scientists still talk as if we have some hope of averting catastrophic climate change on this planet. Let’s face it, the only way that will happen is if/when renewable energy becomes so much cheaper and more accessible to the average consumer that they’ll rush to embrace that. Until then, our greed and short-sightedness will keep us on this path. By the time the effects are so overwhelming that even the GOP has to pull their heads out of the sand and admit the problem, it’ll be too late to fix it.
Sorry, kids. Yes, we know exactly what our current course of action is doing to the environment you will rely upon when you’re our age. Or at least, we have a really, really good idea of what will happen, just some disagreement about the exact timing of things. Don’t let future history suggest otherwise. The people of this era are choosing this path for our own short term gain. I’m doing what I can to help influence others via this blog and my own actions, but it’s a really tough battle.
Scientists have identified exactly how it is that climate change may increase the likelihood of extreme weather events around the globe. You can read the full details here, but the gist of it is that there are normally what is, in essence, atmospheric ‘waves’ oscillating between the artic and tropic regions, which help mix things up. During recent extreme weather events, those waves were more or less frozen in place, something which climate change may make more likely as the planet is not heating uniformly (the poles heat more than the tropical areas, hence there’s less temperature different between them to drive the oscillations).
Now here’s an idea I think we could all accept. The Center for Economic and Policy Research has released a paper (PDF link) that looks at the impact that working fewer hours would have on climate change. It assumes that working less would also result in decreased consumption, which then decreased factory output, etc…and finds that reducing work hours by an annual average of only 0.5% over the rest of this century would eliminate 25-50% of the global warming that has not yet already been ‘locked in’ (or in other words, reduce the warming yet to be caused by future greenhouse gas emissions). The estimated impact to personal impact is a reduction of 10-25%, in exchange for increased leisure time.
Now, we just need a catchy slogan for this. Post any ideas in the comments below, let’s make this happen! 🙂
Climate change is becoming more of a focus for me…we’re learning more and more, but also starting to see more effects of this. So, I’ll be posting summaries, like this one, of various climate change stories I find on the web, rather than posting them one at a time.
First up, the latest National Climate Assessment, produced by more than 300 government scientists and outside experts, paints a bleak picture for this country. The report, still in draft form, predicts warming and more extreme weather events. Read more here.
A forthcoming report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change was leaked online (not due to be released until September of 2013 as it is not yet peer-reviewed), and paints a grim picture for our civilization…if we continue on our current path, warming will be ‘a catastrophic and unmanageable 10F over much of Earth’s habited and arable land.” The report also concludes that it is ‘virtually certain’ that human activities are responsible for this global warming. Read much more about this report here.
The World Bank is raising the red flag about global temperature increases above 4C (7F), saying that “we’re on track for a 4C warmer world marked by extreme heat waves, declining global food stocks, loss of ecosystems and biodiversity, and life-threatening sea level rise.” Food security is in doubt as temperatures rise, with crop yield reductions and extreme temperatures likely leading to shortages and hunger. What’s worse is that this 4C ‘danger zone’ is something that our current policies can’t even meet – we’ll overshoot that easily. Read more here.
The BBC reports that current CO2 emissions are too high to curb climate change, and are increasing, rather than decreasing as we need.
The Washington Post reports that, while there is a wide range of predictions from the various climate models, the National Center for Atmospheric Research is finding that warming is likely to be on the high side of predictions – not good, as it means we’ll substantially overshoot the target world leaders have agreed upon as the limit to avoid catastrophic consequences.
It’s basically all bleak news these days…but what makes it worse is that we have the technology and resources, right now, to make significant reductions in our CO2 emissions but we fail to act. Future generations will pay the price…and it doesn’t have to be this way.
Not surprisingly, 2012 was the hottest year ever (in recorded history, since 1895) in the continental US. The 53.3F average temperature was 3.2 degrees above the average for the 20th century, and one degree above the previous high set in 1998.
Also interesting was that, while there were 362 all-time record highs set across the country, there were zero all time record lows recorded. 2012 also ranked as the driest year since 1998, and with 61% of the continental US in moderate to exceptional drought.
Read more in the USA Today or Washington Post. And let’s hope for a more average 2013…and the political and social willpower to end this crazy terraforming project we’re on before it’s too late.